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Real GDP Growth in European Union

Source: EUROSTAT

The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime.” 

“Given the high uncertainty surrounding the ultimate extent of the economic fallout, growth scenarios produced by ECB staff suggest that euro area GDP could fall by between 5% and 12% this year, depending crucially on the duration of the containment measures and the success of policies to mitigate the economic consequences for businesses and workers.”

ECB Economic Bulletin No.3, May 2020

Recommended Industry Allocation

As economic activity in Europe halts, it is prudent to consider stocks, belonging to the defensive industries, for your portfolio. On the other hand, as countries are gradually reopening their economies, the current recession is likely to be short-lived. Should the economic rebound continue, stocks belonging to the cyclical industries will benefit.  Those considerations are reflected in the presented mix of industries.

Please use the diagram only as a broad indication what industries could have growth potential under current economic conditions as industry performance is influenced by many different factors, not only by business cycle.

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