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Real GDP Growth in European Union

Source: EUROSTAT

“While the overall economic situation is expected to improve over 2021, there remains uncertainty surrounding the near-term economic outlook, relating in particular to the dynamics of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the speed of vaccination campaigns.”

“Looking ahead, the ongoing vaccination campaigns, together with the gradual relaxation of containment measures – barring any further adverse developments related to the pandemic – underpin the expectation of a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021. Over the medium term, the recovery of the euro area economy should be supported by favourable financing conditions, an expansionary fiscal stance and a recovery in demand as containment measures are gradually lifted.”

“…projections foresee annual real GDP growth at 4.0% in 2021, 4.1% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.”

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue No.2, 2021 March 25.

Recommended Industry Allocation

Should the economic rebound in Europe continue, stocks, belonging to the cyclical industries will outperform a broader market. However, the economic outlook is highly uncertain and stock market volatility is expected to remain high. So, a portfolio should include stocks from the defensive industries as well.

Please use the diagram only as a broad indication what industries could have growth potential under current economic conditions as the industry performance is influenced by many different factors, not only by a business cycle.

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